What a year it has been! It will certainly be remembered for its uncertainty. It was a year where asset and currency swings were huge exposing the anxiety and risk of the markets.
Paging through various investment data for the year the stats reveal the following three biggest price falls on our markets for the year.
The rand against the dollar – 31,8%
Touching as high as R16 to the dollar this has had a devastating effect on our economy as imports are just so much more expensive. This will in turn translate into price increases on various goods and services increasing the strain on household budgets.
The biggest drop in commodity prices is Oil – 32,4%
Who would have thought that the dollar price of oil would fall to levels in the mid $ 30s? Especially when not too long ago a barrel of oil tipped $140. It’s a pity that our currency has weakened as much. The cost per litre of petrol hovers around the current levels of R12. We are extremely lucky that the oil price has fallen by as much. If it stayed at previous levels we would be riding bicycles, that’s for sure.
The Resource Sector dropped the most on the JSE – 45%.
World demand for resources has fallen dramatically as a result of slow growth. We depend so much on exporting our resources but with demand being at an all-time low the sector has nearly halved in value. The weak rand has cushioned the fall in resources to a large extent as they are generally priced in Dollars.
The burning question for 2016 is, “Can these prices fall even further?” My view is that they possibly could get worse before things turn. Remember that assets move in cycles. Also, watch the rand. It has surprised us many times over the years. Just when you think you know where it’s heading it makes a move in another direction.
So uncertainty still prevails……