The Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced on Thursday another interest rate hike of 75 basis points.This extends to the banks prime lending rate to 9%..
Inflation
The Reserve Bank has a mandate to protect the future value of our purchasing power which is measured by what is known as the Consumer Price Index or CPI. Essentially, this is a basket of goods which is monitored by Stats SA.
Year on year inflation is running away from us at a 13 year high of 7.4% % which is way outside the target range of 3 to 6%. This means one rand is now worth 92,6 cents from 12 months ago. .
So how does that affect you and me?
The main mechanism used by the Reserve Bank is the control of the interest rate on the money it supplies to the banks, known as the repo rate which is now 5,5%. The banks in turn lend money to the public at a rate which is called prime. The intended effect is that consumers will spend less which pulls back demand on goods and services which in turn slows down increases in prices.
Double edge sword for the consumer
On one side if you are in debt (which most households are), the cost of debt is simply that much more expensive. All loans – mortgage, cars, credit cards, overdrafts and personal lending move directly with the new increase. This has a direct impact on expenses driving down any disposable income in the household.
On the other side the cost of living is already expensive with the high rate of inflation. The consumer is left with the problem of getting through the month same income which is technically worth less.
The main culprit is the fuel price which we unfortunately import as we don’t have any oil in South Africa. Since oil is priced in US Dollars we have a double whammy if the high prices are paid by a weak rand. This is the current status and we will have to wait for a drop in oil oil price and the rand to strengthen before we will see the pump price of fuel come down.
It’s a global problem
The problem is world wide. The US has inflation of over 9% which is the highest in 40 years. Europe is in the same boat. The main driver is the price of oil which our world is so dependant upon.
So what can we do?
Wean ourselves off the dependency of debt as a starting point. Those households which are not indebted will not feel the squeeze of the rise in interest rates. In fact they will benefit as their personal savings will increase from the extra interest. They still have to contend with the cost of other goods and services but by having no debt costs they will be so much better off.
You will still be better off targeting your debt in the short term as the interest rate charged is much higher that the savings rate earned. The prime lending rate is 9% and the interest on savings is 5%.
The interest rate cycle is on its way up which means that the future cost of debt will be even more costly. Reducing your debt sooner will save you that much more in the long run.
It will be a tough road ahead as the effect of the interest rate hike will take a while to filter into the economy. Prices will take a while before they stabilise. Financial pressure is with us for a while.